Scotland's industrial and logistics market in good shape despite pandemic

30 03 20 industrial

According to Colliers International’s latest research.


Scotland's industrial and logistics commercial property market was in good shape before the COVID-19 lockdown and should recover when some normality returns, according to a new survey.
 
The latest industrial and logistics research from property and investment firm Colliers International on the first quarter of 2020 covers both the west and east of central Scotland.

Colliers describes the west of the country -  Scotland’s largest industrial market, accounting for 63% of take-up last year - as being in “reasonably good shape” before the coronavirus pandemic.
 
It says that tightening supply, with 6.5% availability, along with robust demand and limited development have resulted in rental growth over the last few years.
 
Iain Davidson, director of Industrial & Logistics at Colliers International in Glasgow, said: “It’s fair to say most people came into 2020 relatively optimistic about the year ahead, off the back of December’s election result and more clarity regarding Brexit. But then COVID-19 hit and social distancing is clearly having an unprecedented economic impact.”
 
He believes that post-lockdown the west of Scotland has experienced a tale of two markets, with the larger 30,000 square feet-plus sector faring better than the small and medium sub-30,000 sq ft size range.
 
Colliers' research reveals that, contrary to historic trends, the larger sector seems to be faring significantly better than that for smaller units. New enquiries for sub-30,000 sq ft units have all but ground to a halt, particularly sub-10,000 sq ft, as small and medium space occupiers are focused on the business challenges resulting from the pandemic.
 
Mr Davidson added: “The majority of new small lettings that were pending prior to the outbreak have been paused, rather than cancelled. Postponements range from between two to six months and landlords have, in the main, accepted these delays under the circumstances.”
 
In contrast, Colliers finds that the larger end of the market is holding up relatively well in the west with three 50,000 sq ft-plus deals completed during lockdown, totalling 250,000 sq ft. Another two buildings, totalling 100,000 sq ft, have recently gone under offer.
 
A feature of the last four to six weeks has been a demand for new short-term storage requirements related to COVID-19 to house such items as healthcare equipment, personal protective equipment (PPE), surplus retail stock or manufacturing components. 
 
According to Colliers, while enquiry volumes are down in the west, requirements that have come to market recently seem genuine and immediate. It has seen active interest in many of its larger properties, which include 85% of available floorspace at Scotland’s premier big box distribution park, Eurocentral.
 
However, several occupiers are looking to re-negotiate terms and while headline rents are holding up, incentives are in some cases increasingly slightly.
 
Mr Davidson added: “Assuming we get back to some semblance of normality relatively quickly, I believe the industrial sector will weather the storm in the short term and show resilience in the medium to longer term. 
 
“The sector is likely to be a beneficiary of current events due to an acceleration of consumer behaviour further towards on-line retail and changes in supply chain strategies to more localised production and storage.” 

 
The east of Central Scotland mirrors a lot of what is happening in the west, according to Lewis Pentland, associate director of Industrial & Logistics at Colliers International in Edinburgh.
 
He explained: “The supply statistics largely reflect that of the west and we have witnessed similar rental growth over the last few years. One difference to note is the level of activity below 10,000 sq ft, which we found made up 90% of lettings in the east in 2019.”
 
Colliers noted that, apart from a handful of lettings over 20,000 sq ft, activity at the larger end of the market was dominated by sales to owner occupiers. Prior to the lockdown, it was seeing an uptake of enquires in sites from occupiers seeking to build their own units in the absence of suitable leasehold stock. 
 
A positive development is the letting of a refurbished 49,000 sq ft distribution unit at Edinburgh Distribution Park in Newbridge to Tennent Caledonian, on behalf of IPIF, on a straight ten-year lease at £6 per square foot.
 
As in the west, at the smaller end of the market, most occupiers are waiting to see how the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds, with the majority of lettings being put on hold rather than cancelled. 
 
In the larger end of the sector in the east, Colliers saw a 200,000 sq ft sale go under offer before the lockdown, which should complete shortly. 
 
Mr Pentland added: “I believe we’re reasonably well placed to weather this storm given the strength of our market before COVID-19, coupled with the nature of the businesses which many of our occupiers are in.”


Related Experts

Iain Davidson

Director

Glasgow

Iain has a wealth of experience in the Scottish commercial property market, specialising in Industrial and Logistics real estate. He is in an expert in providing acquisition, disposal, development and general agency advice to a wide range of private and public sector clients ranging from developers, occupiers, institutional investors and private clients. During a career spanning over 20 years, Iain has and continues to be involved in most of highest profile industrial property deals in Scotland.

Representative clients and projects include: 

Frasers Property/Oaktree/Patrizia - Appointed in 2015 as Letting agents & development advisors on Scotland's largest and most established business estate, Hillington Park, totalling 2.5m sq ft and benefitting from Scotland’s first and only Simplified Planning Zone.

Canmoor - Letting agents on the 1.6m sq ft Westway Park, Renfrew, Scotland's largest fully enclosed industrial park.

Eurocentral - Advised on various lettings, sales and acquisitions on Scotland's premier distribution park. Brokered deals to a variety of well known organisations, including; Lidl, DPD, Hermes, Wm Morrison Supermarkets, ACS Clothing, Mentholatum, Nagel Group and DX.

Prologis - Provision of development and letting agency advice on 1m sq ft prime industrial scheme known as Prologis M8 in Lanarkshire.  504,000 sq ft and 175,000 sq ft pre-lets to the Co-operative and Brakes respectively.

The Co-operative - Successfully secured mandate to dispose of UK wide portfolio of surplus warehouses totalling 3m sq ft. Approx. 1 m sq ft transacted in Scotland.

Logicor - Letting of Scotland's largest ever speculatively built warehouse; 380,000 sq ft at J4M8 to Amazon. Neighbouring 240,000 sq ft building sold to Schuh.

Freescale Semiconductor Inc - Sale and partial leaseback of 800,000 sq ft manufacturing facility in East Kilbride, Glasgow.

Asda - Sale of 250,000 sq ft distribition warehouse facility in Grangemouth.

St Modwen Properties plc - Provision of acquisition advice for purchase of 32 acre former Rolls Royce facility at Hillington, Glasgow.  Retained to provide Agency advice on 750,000 sq ft estate, rebranded Pegasus Business Park subsequently sold whole site to MEPC. 

 

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Charlotte Williams

Director of PR & Communications| UK & EMEA

London - West End

I am an experienced PR & Communications professional, a brilliant communicator with a track record in influencing multiple stakeholders. I am a 'do’er', not a delegator. I see the big picture but I'm not afraid to get my hands dirty and approach projects in a collaborative manner working in cross-functional teams within a matrix Global business. I execute with excellence and care about the teams that I lead.

As Director of PR & Communications in the UK and EMEA I am responsible for:
• Developing and executing internal and external communications strategy for the UK and EMEA business.
• Developing and implementing strategic and tactical communications plans to build the brand and promote key messages across all media - print, broadcast and social
• Advising senior leadership on communications reputation management and developing a media engagement programme that supports key business lines.
• Media evaluation and reporting objectives, targets and successes across the business.
• Leading on the delivery  of strategic communications programmes for all our M&A activity in EMEA

Management:

  • Manage the UK in-house PR team
  • Provide strategic direction to the PR teams across EMEA
  • For a year (2013/2014) I was Acting Head of EMEA Marketing & Communications (maternity leave cover)
  • I am a member of the EMEA Marketing Leadership and Global PR & Social teams
  • I lead the EMEA PR Leadership team

 

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