Real Estate Investment Forecasts Q1 2019

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Colliers International forecasts total commercial property returns to slow to a cyclical low of 1.2% in 2019. Income return (4.8%) becomes the only source of growth, as capital growth turns negative (-3.5%, 0.1% residual). This is down from 6.0% in 2018 and 10.2% in 2017. However, we expect total returns growth to recover in 2020 and to remain in mid-single digits over the forecast horizon.

Real Estate Investment Forecasts Q1 2019

Real Estate Investment Forecasts Q1 2019

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About the Authors
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Walter Boettcher

Director of Research and Forecasting

London - West End

I am the the Chief Economist at global property advisors Colliers International based in London.  I am a research economist identifying timely research topics and directing research and forecasting outputs.

I have over 20 years UK and European property industry experience and extensive expertise across a wide range of property sectors and related industries.

I participate regularly in industry panel discussions, but am focused more on direct client engagement with institutions, property companies, banks, and private investors. A regular media commentator, I have a wide range of national and broadcast experience.

I joined Colliers International in August 2007 after several years at a private property company where he was responsible for managing a mixed portfolio of London residential, retail and office assets.

Previously, I worked in a few London property advisory firms, a geodemographic company as well as a few youthful sojourns in the US offshore oil industry, local government and entertainment business.

I am an economics graduate of the University of Texas at Austin and received his PhD from the Faculty of Science at University College London.  I am a member of Lambda Alpha International and the Society of Property Researchers.

Perhaps best known for my alternative take on property economics and investment, I am a keen proponent of UK regional development and infrastructure investment.

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Michael Kershaw

Director

London - West End

Michael is a Senior Director in the National Capital Markets team.  Michael joined Colliers International in mid-2010.

 

Michael has worked as an investment specialist for over 15 years.  Throughout that time Michael has focussed on Industrial, Office and Mixed Portfolio Investment work UK wide.  Michael is also experienced in undertaking Sale & Leaseback transactions on behalf of Corporate Clients. 

 

Based in Colliers Central London office Michael works closely with investment, agency and professional colleagues in both London and the Colliers International regional offices throughout the UK. 

 

Michael’s major investment clients include UK and International Institutions, Property Companies and High Net Worth individuals including Legal & General, Aberdeen Standard, Clipstone Land, Ascendas Singbridge, Gazeley, Peel Logistics, The Cording Group, Gramercy, The Milton Group and Colliers Capital amongst others. 

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Russell Francis

Head of Valuation and Advisory Services

London - West End

Russell is a Chartered Surveyor responsible for running the Valuation and Advisory Services Department comprising over 50 surveyors and support staff engaged in the valuation of commercial and residential properties throughout the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia and the USA.   

 

Russell started his career with Edward Erdman & Co in 1978 where he initially specialised in rent reviews and lease renewals on shopping centres, together with other related professional matters.  In 1988 he became a Director within the Valuation Department of Colliers Erdman Lewis with specific responsibility for valuing investment properties and shopping centres.  In 1995, he became Head of Valuation within Colliers Erdman Lewis.  In 2009 he joined the Colliers International Global Valuation and Advisory Services Group, representing the UK and EMEA region. 

 

Russell often acts as an Expert Witness and recently represented Blackstone with regard to the claim for damages following the destruction of a 450,000 sq ft distribution depot by the Buncefield oil terminal explosion.

 

He remains actively involved in day to day valuation work and his clients include Lasalle Investment Management, Grosvenor, Development Securities, the Co-operative Group, HSBC, RBS, Lloyds and Barclays.

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