Greater Bay Area 2030 - Opportunities and challenges over the next decade

We have partnered with RICS, a leading global professional body in the development and management of the built environment, to co-author a detailed report on the Greater Bay Area (GBA). Launched in Hong Kong from the Colliers office with senior leaders across both organizations and key leading businesses, our joint research looks at future opportunities in the GBA from a real estate supply and demand perspective, layered with consideration of how international operational standards will be adopted throughout the growing workforce and other related developments over the next decade.

The joint report was unveiled at a launch event hosted by Colliers International Managing Director Nigel Smith where he welcomed all guests and facilitated the proceedings.

“The long-term importance of the GBA is essential to Hong Kong’s future success. The anticipated growth over the next decade has the potential to make the region the third biggest economy in the world, highlighting a major demand for real estate and posing a question around the existing supply.”
- Nigel Smith, Managing Director of Colliers Hong Kong

The paper was presented by Rosanna Tang, Head of Research, Hong Kong and Southern China, Colliers, before a panel discussion with Global RICS Chief Markets Officer Matt Harrison and RICS Greater China Managing Director Pierpaolo Franco. Global RICS Chief Markets Officer Matt Harrison was in Hong Kong as part of his Greater Bay Area tour to share global best practices and international standards.

“City clusters drive sustainable and inclusive economic growth, improve living standards, enhance connectivity, and forge competitive advantage in the global race for talent and investment. The Greater Bay Area project is a unique opportunity for the built and natural environment industry to demonstrate its role in facilitating economic growth and, crucially, great outcomes for people.”
- Matt Harrison, Global RICS Chief Markets Officer

Key Findings

  • Anticipated growth in real estate needs - Property demand for commercial and logistics space should grow throughout the development phase over the next decade to support the targeted economic growth, making commercial and logistics space two of the most attractive sectors for investors and businesses who are interested in capturing GBA opportunities.
  • Connectivity is key for a mega region - Due to the closer proximity of the GBA cities, travel times between main cities are lower. It takes less than an hour to travel between Hong Kong and Guangzhou, compared to more than 3 hours between New York and Washington.
  • Skilled labour will be necessary to drive productivity growth - A skilled labour force is a more important contributor to productivity growth in cities than better physical capital. If the GBA is able to close the productivity gap with Silicon Valley and other hi- tech clusters in developed markets, we believe that access to a large skilled pool of labour will be essential for growth to be sustainable.
  • Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou should become the future key office clusters for the GBA - According to Colliers’ Hong Kong Annual Occupier Survey 2019, 14% of the Hong Kong office occupiers indicated that they would like to expand into the other GBA cities, while another 20% indicated that they would like to expand their footprint in Hong Kong. The improved connectivity of the cities’ ports, which are three of the world’s top 10 largest, should result in synergies to facilitate further growth.
  • Decentralization beyond the border is possible with improving infrastructure- In a recent survey of RICS professionals in Hong Kong, 40% of participants believed that Hong Kong-based companies have started to consider relocating or expanding headcounts into other parts of the GBA. We forecast that there could be a total of an additional 21 million sq meters of office space needed by 2028 given the forecasted economic growth. Given the relative high rents in Hong Kong, emerging office markets across the border such as Nanshan and Qianhai in Shenzhen could serve as more affordable alternatives to Hong Kong for incubators and start-up companies.
  • Challenges include balancing infrastructure cost & benefit, increasing scale and complexity, and difficulty attracting international talent - In an increasingly complex economic environment, scale could pose a detriment. It will be essential to make the “right investments” as financing for infrastructure projects is a finite resource. As increasing scale comes with increasing complexity, there will likely be limitations to the number of complementary tasks that can be completed by an individual or company. In addition, the differences between the Hong Kong and Chinese economic system, legal structure, and labour costs may become a challenge to attract the right balance of skilled labour into the GBA. Bridging these gaps will be crucial to unlock the untapped potential for the next stage of economic development in the GBA.

Click here to download the report

 

For more information, please contact:

ROSANNA TANG
Head of Research | Hong Kong SAR and Southern China Colliers International
+852 2822 0514
rosanna.tang@colliers.com

SEAN ELLISON
Senior Economist | Asia Pacific Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors RICS
+61 0 424 845 725
sellison@rics.org


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