December 2019 Ireland Snapshot

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The Irish economy continues to outperform the G7 average with the year-on-year rate of GDP growth revised up in Q1 19 from 6.3% to 7.2%. Furthermore, the first official GDP estimate for Q2 19 exceeded market expectations at 6.0% y/y. Nevertheless, relentless Brexit uncertainty continued to weigh on business sentiment and GDP forecasts for H2 19 have been reduced from around 2.7% to a 2.5% y/y rate (Oxford Economics). Likewise, the Irish composite purchasing manager index has shown a further decline to 50.6, still expansionary, but the lowest reading in 89 months. Fixed capital investment in Building & Construction (a surrogate for the supply side economy as a whole) fell from a 10.6% y/y rate in Q1 19 to 6.0% in Q2 19. Although business investment is volatile, the figure is in line with weaker business confidence and well below the five-year quarterly average of 11.0% y/y. Unemployment in Q2 19 rose by 16,400, the largest quarterly increase since Q2 10, with the unemployment rate up from 5% to 5.3% over the same period. The unemployment rate has been stable at 5.3% throughout Q3 19. Low interest rates, coupled with weak sterling, have pushed Irish annual inflation back up to 2013 levels. In May 2019, Irish CPI reached 1.7%, but has since fallen back and was 0.7% in October, in line with the Eurozone average.

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December 2019 Ireland Snapshot

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Related Experts
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Declan Stone

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Declan joined Jackson Stops (now Colliers International, Dublin) in 1991 and was appointed Managing Director in 2005. He is recognised as a senior industry figure in the Irish market with expertise and in-depth experience representing major corporate clients, project and development assembly (greenfield to finished product), major investment transactions and international retailer representation.

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Michele McGarry

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Paul Finucane

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Aiden McDonnell

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Aiden joined jackson Stops McCabe in 1973. After training as a Surveyor, Aiden's primary activity was in the area of Professional Services adn Commercial Agency. This latter role expanded into Consultancy Services for developers advising on innovative ways to provide business space. In 1987 Aiden set up his own business with Centrum Invest, a Scandinavian company specialising in planning shopping schemes, and advising retailers on expansion strategies.

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