Positivity returns to Auckland housing market, commercial confidence stays strong

Colliers International’s latest quarterly Commercial Property Investor Confidence Survey results released

House price growth expectations in Auckland are back in positive territory after a half-year slump that saw confidence drop to as low as negative 10 per cent.

Colliers International’s latest quarterly Residential Property Market Outlook Survey, released today, found a net positive 9 per cent of respondents (optimists minus pessimists) expect median house prices in Auckland to rise over the next 12 months.

That’s up 15 percentage points from a net negative 6 per cent in the June 2019 quarter, and 19 percentage points from a net negative 10 per cent in the March 2019 quarter.

Chris Dibble, Research and Communications Director at Colliers International, says house price growth expectations have risen further nationally.

“We now have a net positive 20 per cent of respondents expecting a higher median price over the next 12 months, up from a net positive 16 per cent in the previous June 2019 quarter survey.

“Twelve of the 13 regions monitored recorded a net positive score, with Christchurch the exception, but optimism is rising, especially for new terraced and detached housing.

“Eight of the 13 regions recorded a higher net percentage result than the previous quarterly survey.”

Since the September 2016 quarter, Queenstown has consecutively taken out first place for the location respondents expect median sale prices to rise over the next 12 months.

Tauranga/Mt Maunganui remained in second place this quarter, while Napier/Hastings replaced Wellington in third place.

Median price expectations in Whangarei have almost doubled with a net positive 18 per cent compared to the June quarter at 10 per cent.

The quarterly survey was undertaken after the Government’s decision to reset KiwiBuild.

When asked if the reset would help more New Zealanders into home ownership, 52 per cent disagreed, 32 per cent agreed, 10 per cent indicated the status quo would remain, and the remaining 6 per cent were unsure.

In the commercial property sector, respondents expect a solid year ahead.

Colliers International’s latest quarterly Commercial Property Investor Confidence Survey found a net positive 24 per cent of respondents expect investment conditions to get better over the next 12 months.

This is similar to the five-year average of a net positive 25 per cent.

Mirroring the residential results, 12 out of the 13 regions monitored recorded a net positive score.

“Christchurch was the exception, however, a large number of respondents expect conditions to remain steady in the Christchurch office and retail sectors, while there is solid optimism in the industrial sector,” says Dibble.

Hamilton has edged into third place in the commercial property confidence rankings, recording an all-time high of a net positive 50 per cent. That was up from 37 per cent in the June 2013 quarter.

“It’s on in Hamilton,” says Dibble. “This confidence is reflected in the very strong sales results from our Hamilton office in recent months.”

Tauranga/Mount Maunganui remains in the top spot for investor confidence, but dipped 4 percentage points to 55 per cent, while Queenstown remains in second place at 54 per cent, up 1 percentage point.  

In Auckland, respondents’ confidence was highest in the industrial sector (64 per cent), followed by the office sector (49 per cent).

In Wellington, confidence was highest in the office sector (58 per cent), followed closely by the industrial sector (51 per cent).

When asked, 59 per cent of respondents stated that they expected investment yields to decrease over the next 12 months, of which 52 per cent believed they would decrease by 0-25 basis points.

The residential survey drew on 5,399 responses while the commercial survey utilised 1,353 responses.


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Chris Dibble

Director | Research & Communications

Auckland CBD

Chris Dibble oversees the delivery of award-winning research reports, PR and Communications for Colliers International New Zealand. With over 13 years of experience and university qualifications in economics, geography, marketing and property, Chris has a  multi-disciplinary approach that assists a broad range of clients in their strategic decision making. Chris is a regular presenter and market commentator with an extensive network of media contacts to discuss the latest insights on current and future property trends. Chris also works with in-house and external writers to curate an audience-focused content delivery strategy for Colliers.

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