Expanding online commerce drives industrial market growth reports Colliers International

Greater Phoenix industrial market remains healthy during pandemic

Phoenix, July 13, 2020 – Colliers International reports the Greater Phoenix industrial real estate market remains healthy, despite business conditions during the pandemic. America’s growth in online purchasing is driving expanded demand for warehouse/distribution space.

Net absorption of industrial space peaked at more than 2 million square feet in the second quarter. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter with net absorption exceeding 1 million square feet. Year-to-date the market has posted 3.7 million square feet of positive net absorption.

Net absorption was dominated by warehouse space in the southeast and southwest areas.  During the quarter, Lucid Motors committed to 479,207 square feet of space in Tempe.  Additionally, Amazon signed a lease for 164,486 square feet in Chandler. Leasing activity slowed significantly in April, as the nation paused and evaluated effects of the Coronavirus, but virtual tours and tenant interest picked up again in May and June.  

The number of leases signed during second quarter decreased by 8.7 percent from first quarter. Tenants approaching their lease expirations have largely chosen to sign short-term renewals as they assess long-term impact of the pandemic on their businesses.  

The vacancy rate for Greater Phoenix industrial space remained low at 7.7 percent at the mid-year point. This marks a continuation of sub-10 percent vacancy that began in third quarter 2015. The vacancy rate rose 10 basis points during second quarter and has risen 70 basis points over-the-year.

The Southwest Valley submarket remarkably delivered more than 2.4 million new square feet of space to inventory during the second quarter, but simultaneously experienced a 30-basis point decline in vacancy. The largest factor in this submarket was Amazon’s lease of 1.1 million square feet at TEN Warehouse in Tolleson.

Supply of spaces larger than 150,000 has tightened in the market. Only 15 existing buildings can handle this size of tenant in the Airport, southeast and northeast areas. There are only eight buildings that can accommodate a tenant requiring 200,000 square feet.  

This relatively low vacancy is noteworthy when you consider the Greater Phoenix market delivered 3.4 million square feet of new space during second quarter. Construction activity rose to 11.6 million square feet, as developers work to provide inventory for strong demand in the market. Second quarter marks the second highest quarter of inventory under construction in the past 10 years. Approximately 9.8 million of these square feet are located in the West Valley.

Land in the Southwest Valley along Loop 303 is being scoured by developers who are creating primarily warehouse and distribution space on those parcels. The South Mountain Freeway 202 expansion is creating more options for businesses doing a site selection; now tenants in the East Valley can look at options in the West Valley and stay within 20 to 30 minutes of vital campuses in the East Valley.

The Northwest submarket has become another top area for construction with 5.9 million square feet underway. Park 303 near the Loop 303 and Glendale Avenue accounts for 1.1 million square feet of new distribution in the submarket, which is 100 percent vacant. The Loop 303 area has become highly desirable as businesses migrate north from Interstate 10.

Rental rates continued to rise, increasing nearly 4.2 percent over-the-year and up 1.16 percent over-the-quarter. The average asking rent reached $0.58 per square foot, with the Airport submarket posting the largest rental rate increase this year of 5.9 percent to $0.71 per square foot. The largest increase over-the-quarter was experienced in the Northwest submarket with 4.4 percent to $0.60.

Rental rates are expected to elevate further as demand remains strong and new projects are delivered. Limited options for large contiguous spaces outside of the West Valley will fuel competition and rising rates.

Investment sales of industrial properties during second quarter decreased from the sizable amount of large multi-property transactions that took place during the first three months of the year. Both sales volume and the number of transactions decreased significantly during second quarter. The quarter posted just $320 million in volume, but the median price per square foot increased 4.2 percent to $116 per square foot.

The Chandler building at 2550 N. Nevada Street sold twice during 2020. The 164,486-square-foot property was originally purchased for $118 per square foot by Walton Street Capital.  Following Amazon’s full-building lease, the project was quickly sold for $230 per square foot, totaling $38 million. There were only two multi-property sales during second quarter.   

The industrial market sector will prove to be the healthiest as we navigate the pandemic.  Projects under construction are moving forward as planned with the only slowdowns being caused by delays in construction material supply chains. The rapid change in supply chain and increase in online shopping has created intense focus on the warehouse sector. The Greater Phoenix industrial market was already strong before the pandemic, but changes to lifestyle during the crisis have created even more demand for industrial space.

About Colliers International
Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading global real estate services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our 14,000 enterprising people work collaboratively to provide expert advice and services to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 20 years, our experienced leadership team, owning more than 40% of our equity, have delivered industry-leading investment returns for shareholders. In 2018, corporate revenues were $2.8 billion ($3.3 billion including affiliates), with more than $26 billion of assets under management.

Learn more about how we accelerate success at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter @Colliers and LinkedIn.

Colliers International in Arizona has served clients locally and globally for more than 35 years.


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Phillip Hernandez

Research Manager

Phoenix

As research manager for Colliers International in Arizona, I am responsible for proactively developing and implementing research objectives and directing all research activity for the Arizona offices.

I provide leading-edge, thought-provoking research and analysis of market data for use in producing quarterly statistical market reports for each property discipline, as well as other ad hoc reports, research projects and presentations. I analyze and interpret real estate trends and maintain a database of economic indicators to provide forecasts.

Regardless of the property type or sector, I believe each has a story to tell and that data provides the opportunity to redefine the narrative. With a background in location analytics, I am highly experienced in interpreting complex data sets. Using the latest technology, I developed a system to blend analytics with a visually attractive approach to bring data to life.

Focusing on business development, I leverage market intelligence and insights for thought leadership content strategy in support of client engagement. My goal is to strategically align research and business development efforts and present research in an easily digestible format that promotes Colliers’ market share and revenue growth.

Colleagues describe me as a brilliant storyteller and a passionate, creative and experienced professional.

Prior to joining Colliers, I served as a business analyst at CBRE, where I specialized in creating tailored research reports, as well as unique and interactive applications and dashboards that elevated the market position of assets.

I delivered weekly research updates with relevant lease and sale comps, custom competitive sets and current market activity. I provided complex market and trend analyses, monitored an extensive database of proprietary market data, and delivered custom quarterly and annual reports that were strategically positioned towards targeted clients. I also led weekly department research meetings to develop initiatives surrounding market trends, produce innovative industry solutions and analyze client-centric objectives.

Previously, I was a GIS analyst for the central region of CBRE. Working exclusively with top-performing markets, I created unique models that illustrated custom real estate datasets through location analytics. I produced high-quality geographic and demographic maps, and investigated multiple approaches to storytelling through map and market analytics.

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