Oahu Retail Summary Market Report Q32019

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Retail Market Faces Economic Headwinds

Key Takeaways

  • The Oahu retail market posted a third quarter occupancy loss of 52,681 square feet, causing vacancy rates to rise over the last quarter from 5.0% to 5.3%. This is the second consecutive quarter of occupancy losses, bringing the total year-to-date negative net absorption to roughly 80,329 square feet.
  • From 2012 to 2018, retail rents averaged a healthy 4.6% annual rate of growth. Since the end of 2018, the average asking base rent increased from $4.14 per square foot per month (“psf/mo”) to $4.19 psf/mo at the end of the third quarter for a 1.2% rate of growth.
  • The September 2019 University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization economic forecast indicated that Hawaii’s economy is entering a period of softening as job counts, tourism expenditures, and population counts post recent declines.
  • Colliers projects that there are storm clouds looming that will contribute to an increase in market and economic uncertainty. Should market conditions stagnate, it will cast a pall over future development activity and retailer expansion plans.
  • Colliers anticipates vacancy rates will rise above 5.5% by year-end 2019.

Summary Statistics

3Q2019 Retail Market

 YTD Net Absorption:  (80,329) SF
 Vacancy Rate:  5.30% 
 Avg. Asking Rent Range:  $3.56-$4.67 PSF/Mo 
 Avg. Asking Rent NNN:  $4.17 PSF/Mo 
 Avg. Operating Exp.:  $1.41 PSF/Mo

Hawaii Retail Market Report

Oahu Retail Summary Market Report Q32019

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Related Experts

Mike Hamasu

Research & Consulting Director

Hawaii - Honolulu

Michael brings to Colliers Monroe Friedlander, Inc. over 25 years of marketing and marketing research experience. Michael has directed research efforts at commercial brokerages with a focus on providing information to assist in strategic decision making for real estate investors and brokerage clientele. This effort reported on nearly 600 million square feet of commercial/industrial properties in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Having been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Real Estate Forum and Commercial Property News as well as other regional publications, Michael has been recognized for his detailed analysis of the commercial real estate marketplace and has  become the recognized source for commercial real estate trend analysis and forecasts for Hawaii’s marketplace.

In addition to managing the primary and secondary research efforts in the collection of commercial office, retail and industrial market information and statistics, Michael established the company’s real estate consulting division. Utilizing market factors such as: vacancy rates, absorption, net effective rents, and sales comparables, this consulting unit is able to advise developers, investors, property owners, and tenants on current and projected market trends.

PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Whitney Cressman Limited — Commercial Real Estate Marketing Research Director
Directed brokerage, internal research efforts, and generated real estate consulting assignments at a busy boutique firm in San Francisco Bay area. Served as the principal liaison to press and media. Analyzed office, retail, and development site criteria for market demand and feasibility.
Cushman & Wakefield — Commercial Real Estate Research Services Manager
Oversaw the compilation of market analytics for 600 million square foot commercial and industrial markets throughout the San Francisco Bay area. Recognized nationally and regionally for innovative data management and analysis. Selected to serve on a national career development board for research services. Directed research staff of 12 in five Bay area markets.
Identified by brokers as a manager achieving service excellence.

CONSULTING ASSIGNMENTS
• Development Feasibility Analysis
• Market Demand and Absorption Report
• Broker Opinion of Value 
• Highest and Best Use Studies
• Real Estate Portfolio Analysis
• Strategic Positioning Study
• Market Rent and Vacancy Forecasts
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