Greater Scottsdale Airpark Report Forecasts Shift to Live-Work-Play
Since 1981, we had a vision of what the Greater Scottsdale Airpark would look like in the year 2030. Records in 1981 showed 3,000 employees, 1,589,000 square feet of buildings and 268 companies in the Airpark.
Original reports were called the 2010 Report and we predicted by 2010 there would be 50,000 employees, 25 million square feet and 3,000 companies. The Airpark currently has 56,180 employees, approximately 34.3 million square feet of buildings and 3,075 companies.
Looking back at 1986, 1996, 2006
1986 was the peak year of the fastest growing cycle of new construction in the office, office/warehouse and retail segment of the roaring ‘80s. A total of 500,000 square feet of new construction (14 percent of the overall square feet) was added in 1986.
1996 was the midpoint of the ‘90s Market Rising Cycle with 1.2 million square feet of new construction.
There were four more years of steady growth in the ‘90s.
2006: The Scottsdale Airpark added over 7 million square feet of new construction between January 2006 and December 2008, as the cycle ended. The most difficult recession of the last 50 years happened then.
2016: Where we are today
The Airpark feels very different than the previous cycles of 1986, 1996 and 2006. Looking at the cycle on a scale of 1 to 10, the high point of the Airpark was 2008 at a 10. At the low point of the recovery in 2011, we were at a two.
Today we are about a seven. Clearly we haven’t reached our high peaks of 2008, and it looks like several more years of good, strong steady growth.
What is also different than the previous cycles over the last 50 years is less vacant space has increased the price of buildings, with absorption of jobs. For the first time, the Arizona economy was not driven by new homes and residential construction.
It appears residential construction will continue to improve over the next several years. This will bode well for commercial and industrial values, as the demand exceeds supply and drives up values and prices. This is a unique time due to the new influx of millennial employees and a tribute to both Arizona’s diversity of industries and good government policies.
What will we see in 2017 in the Greater Scottsdale Airpark?
- The transition of live-work-play will be at the center stage of the Airpark with over 800 new apartment and condo owners in residence.
- Office rents will continue to rise due to the lack of new supply.
- The largest redevelopment project ever built will be announced in a key location in the Airpark.
- The Scottsdale Airpark will have its first Wikipedia listing.
- A panel of Scottsdale Airpark stakeholders hope to bring forward new branding of the Greater Scottsdale Airpark Employment Base.
- More aerospace and defense related companies.
What will 2030 look like?
We are likely to see 75,000 employees, 4,000 companies and 50 million square feet of buildings throughout the entire Greater Scottsdale Airpark. This would include new buildings along the state land property north and south of the Loop 101 Freeway.