Colliers International 2019 Q2 Greater Phoenix Office Market Report

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Q2 Office Market

HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Not only does Greater Phoenix continue to lead the country in job creation, it also remains #1 for population growth (three years running).
  • During the 12-month period ending in May, preliminary estimates show that employers added 66,500 net new jobs, an increase of 3.2 percent which places Greater Phoenix #1 in overall job growth for the country.
  • Overall the Greater Phoenix office market performed well during the second quarter; net absorption remained positive with a little over 96,000 square feet absorbed.
  • Employers continue to add workers at a very active pace, fueling tenant demand for office space and fueling new development.
  • Despite delivering over 1.4 million square feet through the first half of the year, tenant move-ins still outpaced new construction, which drove vacancy down to 13.3 percent, 30 basis points (bps) lower than Q1 and 260 bps lower over-the-year.
  • Continued vacancy declines are supporting rent growth, with asking rents ending the first quarter at $25.77 per square foot, up 4.5 percent from one year ago.
  • Investment sales volume increased over-the-quarter by 10 percent to $424 million across 49 transactions. The median price per square foot spiked to $172, with cap rates resting at 7.5 percent. 

OUTOOK: The outlook for the Greater Phoenix office market continues to remain bright in both the mid-to-near-term as local businesses continue to expand and new companies continue to bring operations to the Valley. Strong job growth is supporting demand for office space; and with the overall vacancy rate tightening, new development is gaining momentum.

Projects totaling more than 2.4 million are under way and development of new projects, or additional phases of current projects, will likely enter the development pipeline in the coming quarters.

Markets remained robust for most of the second quarter and the drag on real estate prices many were expecting, as a result of rising rates, has not materialized. With a more dovish Fed, and more talk of QE 4 (Quantitative Easing), expect elevated demand for commercial real estate assets to continue, especially as yields continue to plummet (particularly across fixed income instruments a la Treasury notes) and as investor need for cash flowing vehicles, due in large part to changing demographics, continues to rise. 


Office Market Colliers International in Arizona

Colliers International 2019 Q2 Greater Phoenix Office Market Report

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Thomas Brophy

Research Director

Phoenix

As national director of multifamily research & analytics for the Cooke Multifamily Team with Colliers International, I am responsible for the aggregation, management and analysis of all market, and related, data sets.

I am committed to providing market-leading research services through the systematic deployment of custom, purpose-built software and analytic platforms for the creation of qualitative, not just quantitative, analysis.

In addition to publishing quarterly statistical reports for each market in which our clients operate, I maintain a database of both publicly available, and in-house built, leading economic/real estate indicators to provide forecasts and analyze and interpret real estate trends as they happen.

I also produce customized research reports on behalf of the team and clients, prepare market presentations and develop ad hoc research projects in support of business development.

My ethos: question different; for it is in asking better, more salient, questions that true market knowledge, and understanding is found. I am reminded of the words of T.S. Eliot who stated, “Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?”

In our new era of big data, we have reached peak data overload. Knowledge is a derivative of information; wisdom, knowledge’s ultimate abstract, can only be gained when tethered to, and guided by, past experience.

Data without context is like a light without a bulb, a market without a narrative or an explanation without a common reference point.

Data is but a guide to asking better questions; better questions lead to greater understanding, which, if deployed effectively and purposely, lead to better results.

Prior to my current role, I served as research director for Colliers International in Arizona, managing the research department entrusted with all market data and analysis activities. My creative outlook significantly enhanced research services for clients and brokers. Collaborating with other service lines and professionals, our research team provided extensive data compilation, including ownership, zoning, land use, property sales and demographics, and developed reliable statistical information.

My extensive experience includes collecting, analyzing and preparing market and economic data and research, as well as expertise in corporate communications, investor relations, strategic planning, brand management and public speaking.

Prior to Colliers, I was director of research for ABI Multifamily, where I developed market reports and research data used in marketing materials for ABI offices in Phoenix, Tucson, Sacramento and San Diego. I oversaw all data collection and reporting, wrote monthly market insight articles, and developed market podcasts.

As director of research and partner for Neighborhood Ventures (a multifamily investment firm), I collected, analyzed and wrote market data reports for use in investor presentations, offering materials and corporate communications. As principal with EPU Investments, I directed business and research operations for a multi-divisional investment company involved in single- and multifamily development and land services, including farming and water rights assessments and acquisitions.

Serving as an affordable housing specialist at Hendricks & Partners (now Berkadia), I provided assistance, research and guidance in creating the affordable housing division, and assisted brokers and clients in the acquisition and disposition of assets across the U.S.

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