MR_OAK_17Q1_OFC_175x227New Supply and a Tight Labor Market

With the latest real GDP growth rate of 1.9 percent, slowly rising interest rates, and 4.5 percent unemployment against a backdrop of the nascent Trump Administration and a new economic course, economists’ description of the US economy as being in a state of moderate, uneven expansion seems accurate enough. The Dow surpassed 20,000 for the first time, declining sharply in March, then climbed back to surpass 21,000 in a fitting example of market expectations. Short term flux notwithstanding, economists believe we are much closer to the end of the expansion than to the beginning. Some believe the current cycle will continue for another one to two years, while others believe that Trump’s policies may extend the expansionary cycle, causing a larger correction when an inflection point does arrive.