Trends2020 - Colliers International Silicon Valley Market Forecast Recap

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Event Speakers Share Economic, Political and Market Predictions for 2020 and Beyond

San Jose, CA, 2/27/2020 – On Wednesday, February 26th, Colliers International welcomed more than 700 clients and real estate professionals to the 21st annual Colliers Silicon Valley TrendsTM Real Estate Forecast event at the California Theatre in Downtown San Jose. On the agenda: a broad analysis of the economic, political and market trends affecting the Silicon Valley real estate market and a look ahead to what 2020 could hold for the region.

Colliers Executive Managing Director Reed Payne welcomed attendees, set the stage and served as host for the afternoon as Colliers experts and guest speakers walked the audience through the multidimensional forces affecting the Silicon Valley Corporate, R&D and Industrial real estate markets.

Lena Tutko, senior research manager for Colliers Silicon Valley, shared her analysis of the market, demonstrating that the fundamentals driving current growth remain strong. Colliers is currently tracking 10.6 million square feet of corporate office space under construction, of which 76 percent is preleased. With an unemployment rate of just 2.2 percent, compared to the national average of 3.5 percent, competition for talent remains high and companies are wooing potential employees with cutting edge offices.

Google led the way in 2019 corporate real estate deals with the largest corporate real estate transaction of the year - not just in Silicon Valley but nationwide - with their purchase of Yahoo!'s 974,639-square-foot former headquarters in Sunnyvale at more than $1,000 per square foot. Apple, Facebook and Amazon also continued to invest and expand in the region, contributing to the two million square feet of new corporate space added to the market in 2019. Despite the introduction of new product, vacancy rates shrank to 5.6 percent due continued high demand for space, which helped push office asking rents up a whopping 103.9 percent since 2010. Demand for R&D and Industrial product also remains strong.

On the economic front, Christopher Thornberg, PhD, a founder and chief economist with Beacon Economics, returned to Trends to share his take on global economic factors affecting the Silicon Valley real estate market. According to Thornberg, "Reports on the end of this economic expansion are highly exaggerated," although signs point to an overall slowing of the economy. The labor market is tight, wages are growing and inflation is low, contributing to a strong economic outlook overall. The biggest potential threats to the current expansion, according to Thornberg, are an equity bubble, trade conflicts, the brewing Coronavirus situation and unease over the upcoming election--each of which has the potential to put a damper on market enthusiasm.

Colliers also invited Jeff Bush, a nationally recognized political thought leader and contributor to The Washington Update to give clients an assessment of the political landscape. After walking the audience through upcoming legislative changes in retirement investing, healthcare, infrastructure and trade, Bush shared his take on what we can expect from the upcoming election. In a word, the field is "murky" at the presidential level with a strong possibility of a brokered Democratic convention. Regardless of party, Bush posited that whichever candidate loses Florida will have to win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win the election. If forced to make a prediction, Bush said that Trump has a 53 percent chance of winning re-election, the Democrats are likely to keep the House, although not at the same level as today, and Republicans are likely to maintain control of the Senate.

Looking ahead to 2020, Payne closed the event by reiterating that indications suggest that the Silicon Valley market will continue its robust growth streak, fueled by innovation, job growth and continued VC investment.

Colliers was joined in underwriting this year's TrendsTM presentation by lead sponsor Hudson Pacific Properties, in addition to McLarney Construction, DWS, LMA Law, LLP, Heritage Bank of Commerce, Compass Solutions and HGA.

About Colliers International
Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading real estate professional services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our more than 15,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert advice to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 25 years, our experienced leadership, owning approximately 40% of our equity, has delivered compound annual investment returns of almost 20% for shareholders. In 2019, corporate revenues were more than $3.0 billion ($3.5 billion including affiliates), with $33 billion of assets under management in our investment management segment. Learn more about how we accelerate success at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter @Colliers or LinkedIn.


Media Contact:
Mike Jurs
Allison + Partners Northern California
ColliersNorCal@allisonpr.com


 


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Reed Payne

Executive Managing Director

Silicon Valley

As Executive Managing Director of Colliers International’s Silicon Valley office, my role is to oversee and continually diversify the Colliers presence within the Silicon Valley, one of the most strategically important markets in the world.  I work closely with the 80 brokers in our office to optimize the brokerage services we provide to our investor, owner, and occupier clients.   

I enjoy my work very much, and deeply value the trust our clients put in us to solve their real estate challenges.  At Colliers, I work with many of the most established brokers in our region, as well as newer brokers as they develop their careers.  It gives me great pride to know that all our agents can rely on me to help them continue to be successful.  I believe the Colliers entrepreneurial culture serves clients well because it fosters a client-focused initiative very similar to the enterprising energy that our clients put into their own businesses. 

I joined Colliers in May 2018, bringing with me over 36 years of commercial real estate experience.     Immediately prior to joining Colliers, I worked at Kidder Mathews as the Executive Vice President overseeing brokerage services for Northern California and Nevada.  Before Kidder Mathews I ran the CBRE Silicon Valley Private Client group.  I began my brokerage career two weeks after graduating from CAL Berkeley with Coldwell Banker (now CBRE) as an Industrial salesman in their Oakland office.  Over the years, I have handled over $1.1 billion in Sales and Lease transactions in the office, R&D, industrial and retail sectors.  Additionally, I have held numerous management and senior management positions with CBRE, Transpacific Development Company, Insignia ESG and Kidder Mathews.

I live in Menlo Park with my wife of 30 years, Anne Kerwin Payne.  Our children Weston and Madelyn are now raised.  In my spare time, I love to play golf, ski, and hike.  Anne and I support a number of community organizations, especially the Bay Area Women’s Sports Initiative (BAWSI) and CAL Athletics.  I also serve on the board of the Silicon Valley Brokers Association and am an active SIOR.

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Lena Tutko

Senior Research Manager

Silicon Valley

Lena is the Senior Research Manager for Colliers International covering the Silicon Valley and San Francisco Peninsula markets. With more than 10 years of experience in commercial real estate research, she is passionate about providing strategic market insights that help move the business forward. Lena leads a team of research analysts and is enthusiastic about maintaining the highest level of data integrity and transforming data into knowledge.

Lena began her career in commercial real estate with Real Capital Analytics, where as Senior Research Manager she led cross-functional teams in Silicon Valley, New York and London. Prior to joining Colliers International, she was a Market Research Manager at Omnicell Inc., where she led research initiatives for the company’s Global Automation and Medication Adherence business segment. Lena holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, San Diego.

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